The Phase I project results supported the conclusion that is technologically feasible to forecast pre- harvest winter wheat yields using remotely sensed data. Consequently, the purpose of this Phase II proposal is to develop bi-weekly, pre-harvest estimates of wheat yields at various spatial scales for six wheat producing states in the Great Plains using remotely sensed data. The majority of Great Plains winter wheat production comes from Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota. These states annually produce over 800 million bushels of wheat-nearly one-half of the total winter wheat in the United States. Great Plains winter wheat production annually contributes over $2.5 billion to the regional and national economics. In the Great Plains wheat production changes considerably from year to year due to changes in weather and environmental conditions. Given the social economic impacts of varying wheat production, pre-harvest estimates of wheat yields are critical for management and planning purposes. Wheat yield estimations by USDA NASS are provided in a tabular format on a monthly basis at the crop reporting district level. This information would be more valuable to state and federal offices, and agri-businesses, however, if it were provided at finer geographic and temporal resolutions, and delivered in both tabular and map formats.
Anticipated Results/Potential Commercial Applications of Research: Successful development of wheat yield estimation models using remotely sensed data offers a practical, effective method for monitoring wheat resources in the Great Plains on a timely basis. Improved decision making and planning would accompany wheat yield estimation for many members of the agriculture community (e.g., agro-businessmen, insurance providers, grain traders and marketers, grain storage providers and rail transportation providers). Additionally, this research will result in improved methods for assessing the impacts of crop stressing factors such as weather, disease and insects.
