SBIR-STTR Award

Our new method for household forecasting, known as ProFamy, has substantial merits as compared to the classic headship-rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types only without size information, and deals with household "heads" but not other household members. ProFamy uses demographic rates as input and forecasts much more detailed household types and sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. We will develop the ProFamy method/program into widely-applicable, user-friendly, and commercialized software, and develop an associated database. The Software and database are useful for business and policy analysis on elderly long-term care needs, housing, energy, cars, durable goods and other home-related products and services, and for faculty and students as a research/teaching tool. To develop the database for non-demographers to conveniently perform households and consumption forecasting, we will establish the model standard schedules of race-sex-age-specific marital status transitions rates and race-age-parity-specific rates of marital and non-marital fertility. The database also includes time series of summary measures of demographic rates, elderly long-term care needs and household consumption. As an illustrative application, we will perform U.S. household forecasting (2000-2050) by race, with a focus on elderly living arrangement and long-term care needs assessment.

Thesaurus Terms:
computer program /software, computer system design /evaluation, household, human population composition, information system, method development extended care, human old age (65+), human population growth clinical research

The goal of this SBIR Phase II project is to continue our Phase I work to develop the ProFamy package, which includes commercialized professional software, an input database, and output archive. The software and input database are for household and consumption forecasting at national, state and small area levels. The output archive contains the outcome of household forecasts for the nation, each of the 50 states and DC, and small areas that subscribe to the forecasts products. The ProFamy approach has substantial merits as compared to the classic headship-rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates, projects only a few household types without size information, and deals with household "heads" but not other household members. ProFamy uses demographic rates as input and forecasts much more detailed household types and sizes, and living arrangements of all members, including the elderly, adults, and children. Serious attention will be given and substantial work is planned to ensure that (1) a business or policy analyst who is not an expert in family demography can use the ProFamy software to conveniently perform household and consumption forecasting at national, state and small area levels; (2) an administrator, planner or policymaker can easily view, search, and analyze the forecast output; (3) we summarize our business applications of household and consumption (elderly care needs/cost, housing, energy, vehicles) forecasting as illustrative cases in the final product of the ProFamy package; (4) we develop consulting services programs for household and consumption forecasting for the nation, states and small areas. In our Phase III follow-up work, we will commercialize the ProFamy package including the software, input database, output archive, technical support and consulting services. The ProFamy package is useful for business and health policy analysis/management on elderly long-term care needs/costs, housing, energy, vehicles, durable goods and other home-related products and services for the federal, state, county, community governmental offices and private businesses. It is also valuable for faculty and students as a research/teaching tool. Thus, the products of this project are of high significance in public health.

Thesaurus Terms:
Computer Program /Software, Computer System Design /Evaluation, Health Care Service Planning, Health Economics, Household, Human Old Age (65+), Human Population Study, Mathematical Model, Socioeconomics Geriatrics, Health Care Model, Health Care Policy, Population Survey, Social Model, Vital Statistics Behavioral /Social Science Research Tag, Clinical Research, Health Services Research Tag, Human Data, Human Subject