A technique for forecasting the size of elderly and child populations in small geographic areas will be developed and tested. Change in neighborhood populations will be studied, including increase in children and decrease in elderly living in older housing. The amount of change due to shifts in the national age structure or to a second neighborhood "life cycle" will be measured. These effects will be incorporated in a new neighborhood population forecasting model that can be used in small-area forecasts for many parts of the United States. Standard demographic mathematical models will be applied in a new way to analyze housing turnover and neighborhood change. Census data will yield a longitudinal description of neighborhood population. County Assessor's Office data on home ownership changes (turnover) since 1960 will be used in a calculation of turnover rates by length of ownership. These will be applied in forecasts of turnover and of the neighborhood population's age distribution.Geographic Information Systems computer software will be used to analyze data and display results. It is expected that those planning senior services, school districts, residential developers, health care providers, and others will be interested in purchasing improved forecasts of elderly and child populations in small areas.Awardee's statement of the potential commercial applications of the research:Marketable forecasts of the total population and of the numbers of children and the elderly in specific neighborhoods will result from the research. These might be purchased by businesses marketing goods and services to the elderly population as well as to social service agencies, community developers, and school districts. The model will be useful in identifying future needs for services for young families as well as the elderly.National Institute on Aging (NIA)
