For un-fielded propulsion systems such as the Versatile Affordable Advanced Turbine Engine (VAATE), a technical approach is needed to predict reliability and maintenance cost. This predictive ability is of value because it will enable the designers to select materials and design configurations that have a higher probability of meeting maintenance cost goals. It would also enable prediction of engine maintenance metrics such as number of failures, mean time between maintenance events, and average time on wing for future systems. American Technology and Services, Inc. (ATS) has been a pioneer in the development of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis tools for the VAATE Initiative. The proposed research to extrapolate Weibull parameters from material properties and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) would dovetail well with ATS's Maintenance Cost Assessment Program (MCAP), thereby enabling an assessment of maintenance cost for future propulsion systems. High temperature environments, dwell times, and other factors will be examined to assess their impact on reliability. Physics-based stochastic models may be developed to analyze component fatigue. A large engine company is teamed with ATS for this research.
Benefit: In addition to performance and efficiency improvements, VAATE is focused on containing and reducing the costs of propulsion system Development, Production, and Maintenance early in the design cycle during the Preliminary or Conceptual design phases. This initiative is expected to lead to more cost effective maintenance and therefore greater affordability throughout the life cycle of the program. The capability for calculating Weibull parameters from material properties offers a significant benefit to the MCAP tool. MCAP is being used by the USAF to provide an interactive high-fidelity cost model for estimating maintenance cost for next generation propulsion systems and identifying and quantifying potential cost savings opportunities. The tool could be used by other military services (Navy, Army), NASA, and engine companies to control and reduce maintenance cost and predict repair/replacement requirements and aircraft availability for advanced and conventional propulsion systems. Further expansion of the model could cover additional hardware for use by commercial airlines. Weibull-based reliability assessment is widely used in industry and the capability to forecast Weibull parameters for new materials offers an enabling approach for controlling cost and assuring affordability.
Keywords: advanced materials, advanced materials, Weibull parameters, affordability, Reliability, maintenance cost, Material Properties, un-fielded systems
