A unique opportunity for the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to airplane design and air transportation issues is provided by the rapid advancement of technology in the airplane industry. With the implement of new materials and electronic and computer system technology, there exists a need for tools that can be used by safety analysts to evaluate the operational and safety risk impacts potentially produced by these innovations, and by designers to understand the risk-benefit trade-offs that these innovations may produce. The principal advantage of a PRA is the systematic identification of event scenarios that start with an abnormal occurrence and end with the undesirable consequences. The events within a scenario can be Boolean variables, e.g., the success/failure of systems or components, or can involve physical quantities, such as the growth time of a fire. This set of significant scenarios permits the evaluation of the various competing factors that may determine the risk characteristics of a system, whereas deterministic tests and standards usually do not resolve adequately the question of which, among competing materials, designs, manufacturing processes or operational procedures that meet the deterministic standard or requirement, is actually the best when evaluated in a relative risk-reduction-worth versus cost basis.Anticipated Results/Potential Commercial Applications of Results:Phase I research will be focused on the development of the APRAM framework and on the evaluation and demonstration of the feasibility of the approach. The end result of the Phase 11 research will be a prototype software tool package that can be used by aircraft manufactures and major airlines to demonstrate the safety of the existing aircraft and the safety of the new systems used in new designs or design upgrades. The tool can also be used to evaluate among design and strategic alternatives in a risk-reduction-worth versus cost basis.
