SBIR-STTR Award

Although Space Weather is modeled after Tropospheric weather, both in its conception as a weather system and in our efforts to forecast it, no capability exists today for assimilating magnetospheric data into Space Weather simulations. The proposed project will develop the first such capability in Space Weather. Branch prediction and speculative execution consist of making probabilistic predictions about the likely evolution of the near-Earth space, and distributing among available computers a large number of simulations that assume each of the probabilistically estimated states as initial conditions. As the near-Earth space evolves and near-Earth satellite data are compared with the models, some of the speculatively executed simulations will be seen to diverge from the observations more than others. At that point the machines that were executing them will be reassigned to new lines of speculative simulation, resulting in a continuous ensemble of runs that are in the neighborhood of measured values.

Potential Commercial Applications:
The ultimate goal of the proposed project is the development of a software package that will use Branch Prediction and Speculative Execution together with appropriate cost functions to produce a running ensemble of data-validated global forecasts with corresponding error estimates. The data-validated global forecasts will be marketed to Space Weather forecast providers who are currently using global forecast without any magnetospheric data assimilated