SBIR-STTR Award

It is essential that we understand the cognitive process underlying strategic and tactical decisionmaking in order to provide the most useful types of decision support. Unfortunately, most of the research on decisionmaking has aimed at assessing the applicability of formal statistical decision models under highly structured and artificial laboratory conditions. It is not surprising that this research has failed to provide an understanding of natural decisionmaking processes under complex and stressful real-world conditions. The proposed research is based on a heuristic model formulated within a naturalistic framework rather than a context of decision analysis. The objectives of the proposed research are to assess the value of the model as a description of decisionmaking under complex and stressful conditions, and to increase our understanding of these aspects of decisionmaking. The research will focus on naturalistic observation of decisionmaking in the context of emergency firefighting. These conditions include the critical dimensions of high stress, information uncertainty, personal involvement, and risk of human life. The results will be assessed to determine the parameters that affect naturalistic decisionmaking under stress and uncertainty, and to suggest an approach for decision-aid systems.

The technological sophistication of advanced weapons systems and battle stations places increasing demands on system operators. In order to guide system design, tranining programs, and decision support projects, there is a strong need for knowledge elicitation methods to represent the naturalistic decision making of operational personnel. The primary objective of phase ii is to develop and validate a knowledge elicitation methodology. This work will build on the results of phase i, which established the feasibility of our methods for describing the mental models of highly experienced fire ground commanding, context-rich environments. Phase ii will refine our methodology and expand it to cover situational awareness aspects of decision making. Phase ii will also evaluate the validity and reliability of the methodology, and then extend it to military tasks such as intelligence analysis or battle management. Finally, pilot studies will be performed to apply our knowledge elicitation methods to problems of training, personnel selection, and decision support requirements.