SBIR-STTR Award

The proposed Phase I research will illustrate and assess the feasibility of combining dynamic meaning systems, work control structures, and 4th-generation warfare principles to yield a computational environment for developing behavior signatures of a transnational insurgency movement. This environment allows intelligence analysts and operational planners to develop a functionally-linked framework of hypotheses regarding a transnational insurgency movement's strategic/operational intent and organizational capabilities that can be dynamically maintained as an evidence-supported belief structure, and used to holistically interpret the operational significance of observed objects, events, and conditions and predictively assess and disrupt a future set of contextually-related insurgency behaviors. The research will apply the framework to two case studies involving recent transnational insurgency movements in order to (1) determine if sufficient information exists to create meaningful behavior signatures, (2) identify and illustrate computational methods and techniques that could be incorporated into a Phase II behavior signature system for dynamically maintaining and evaluating a hypothesized model of an insurgency campaign across the strategic-political-operational-tactical spectrum of operations, and (3) identify potential Air Force applications of the behavior signature system for collection management, identification of appropriate operational effects, and the targeting of specific military and interagency actions.

Keywords:
Insurgency Campaign Analysis, 4th-Generation Warfare, Adversary Behavior Signatures, Work Control Structure, Pattern Recognition, Effects Based Planni

A proposed Phase II program of research outlines the development of an analytical tool and accompanying experimentation testbed for constructing, managing, and exploiting operational signatures in a holistic and dynamic manner. This innovative approach to knowledge creation offers a more powerful method of coping with the increased ontological complexity of the modern battlespace. While incorporating the beneficial features of traditional analytical paradigms—e.g., doctrinal templates, case-based reasoning, Bayesian inference, and semantic web technologies—the proposed technical approach provides for real-time construction of meaning and context that enables operational signatures to both (1) adapt to changes in the overall operational situation and (2) reflect the unique perspectives of different stakeholders and decision makers. By constructing situation understanding in a holistic and dynamic manner, the methodology avoids two major pitfalls associated with traditional atomistic methods –namely, (1) the need to augment static description languages with various “context specification” devices and (2) the ever-increasing size of ontologies and predicate logic rule sets. The proposed technology development responds to the need of the Joint commander for improved tools and methods for visualizing and assessing effects-based operations in a complex political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure (PMESII) battlespace.

Keywords:
Knowledge Creation Pmesii Battlespace Behavior Signatures Collection Planning And Analysis Threat Assessment Effects-Based Planning Operational Storyl