The purpose of this project is to develop and adapt epidemiological models for the prediction of the propagation of the counterinsurgency message within a population. Of key importance is the incorporation of the influence of individual variation and, in particular, the effect of super-spreaders. Both deterministic compartment models and stochastic network models will be employed. The Phase I objective is to evaluate epidemiologic models for applicability, to identify key social, cultural and behavioral characteristics which will define model parameters, and to assess the availability of data. The Phase II objective is to develop and demonstrate prototype models and to conduct testing to prove feasibility in an operational experiment or training scenario.
Keywords: Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Mathematical Model, Network Model, Deterministic Model, Individual Variation, Super Spreader, Diffusion
